Nobody has ever made a bad decision with the benefit of hindsight.
That sentence is probably the one that will resonate most with punters, especially after they have seen their carefully considered bets not quite hit the mark.
Of course, it would be lovely to have the famous Sports Almanac from Back To The Future to be able to see the results of future sporting contests, but in the absence of a friendly neighborhood genius scientist, a DeLorean and a Flux Capacitor, perhaps the best way to gain some insight into winning bets is to look back at what bets did make money for customers.
Fortunately, there is now a way we can do that thanks to DraftKings Sportsbook, who kindly provide data to partners on which bets proved to be the most lucrative for customers over a stated day or weekend or similar.
So, with that in mind, we are going to look at what proved to be some of the best value bets made by DraftKings customers this weekend, and which markets were the ones that made DraftKings pay out the most money to winning customers.
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DraftKings Sportsbook Customers Top Bets This Weekend
Bengals @ Chiefs Money Makers
When it came to paying out winning bets on the Bengals surprise win over the Chiefs, the following proved to be the most lucrative bets for DraftKings customers:
Joe Burrow Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-185)
Joe Mixon Over 58.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
Evan McPherson Over 1.5 Field Goals Made (-120)
Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (-120)
Joe Burrow Over 8.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Now, was there a similar pattern when we look at the best paying bets made on the 49ers @ Rams Conference Championship game too?
49ers @ Rams Money Makers
Matthew Stafford Over 2.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
Jimmy Garoppolo Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+140)
Odell Beckham Jr. Over 54.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
Cam Akers Under 59.5 Rushing Yards (-105)
Odell Beckham Jr. Over 4.5 Receptions (+105)
So what does this information tell us? Well, unsurprisingly, it was the short-priced markets that proved to be the most successful bets, with none in the top five of either game being greater value than +140.
To put that in perspective, you’d have to bet $100 on that bet to win $140.
For the bets that came in at -120, of which there were several, that meant for a $100 stake, these punters picked up $85 in winnings and for the lowest odds bet (-185), that equates to around $54 in winnings for a $100 stake.
This to me is indicative that these markets do attract punters who want to bet higher stakes on more secure outcomes to achieve a profit.
These punters are willing to risk more by placing $100 on a -120 odds selection to land a bet at odds of 0.83/1 meaning winnings of $83, than perhaps placing a bet of $1 at $83 to make the same amount of profit.
It is this which perhaps explains why DraftKings pay out much more on these shorter priced options, along with how many people bet on them, that explains why they are more lucrative for more customers than longer odds betting options.
Other Interesting Winning Bets
What was interesting is that when it came to the NBA Money Makers from the 30th January, the fifth most expensive bet for DraftKings was on Bobby Portis of the Milwaukee Bucks scoring the first field goal in the game. Portis was listed at +1000 (10/1) for this and this is a rare example of how the occasional longer odds bet can prove to be a big winner for a number of people.
As is always the case with winning bets, there is a large degree of luck when picking these longer odds winners, whereas those shorter priced options offer more chance of a win, but in order to land a sizeable profit, you need to place a much larger initial stake.
The key thing to remember when betting though is that hindsight is never wrong. However, you can use this data to see which bets are the ones that are proving to be popular with customers and which ones seem to be the ones that is making DraftKings Sportsbook at least, payout winning bets!